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The Yield Spread and Bond Return Predictability in Expansions and Recessions
Andreasen, M. M., Engsted, T., Møller, S. V., and M. Sander. The Yield Spread and Bond Return Predictability in Expansions and Recessions, The Review of Financial Studies.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa107